A year ago this would have sounded ludicrous, but it seems that Roger Federer enters today’s Wimbledon final in better shape than Novak Djokovic.
Better shape mentally at least. Djokovic is trying to avoid a fourth consecutive Grand Slam final defeat. Only three men in the Open Era have lost a major final four times (Ivan Lendl, Andy Roddick and Andy Murray) and Djokovic really doesn’t want to add his name to that list.
He admitted he’s having mental problems but wouldn’t elaborate on them. All he said was he has “identified the problem”.
Djokovic had good starts against Marin Cilic and Grigor Dimitrov in his last two matches but his form dipped and he ended up going the distance against the former and being pushed in four sets by the Bulgarian.
A similar pattern will not go unpunished against Federer, who has been solid throughout his six matches so far and playing with confidence we haven’t seen from him in years.
Federer has already beaten Djokovic twice this season – in Dubai and Monte Carlo – although it must be noted that the Serb was struggling with a wrist problem in the latter.
Their third match this year was a third-set tie-break win for Djokovic in Indian Wells.
On grass, Federer has the more natural game and his record here gives him that extra edge. Djokovic likes to take the ball early and like Federer pointed out in his press conference, has no particular weakness to exploit, where as the Swiss could be somewhat vulnerable on his single-handed backhand.
No one is as agile as Djokovic in terms of movement on court but in the semi-finals he took one tumble after the other, slipping on the worn out grass around the baseline. Federer later stepped on the very same Centre Court and barely missed a step.
That just shows how comfortable the seven-time champion is on the surface and particularly at the All England Club.
How Djokovic handles today’s final could have huge repercussions on his self-belief and he may be a little hungrier for this title than Federer.
Djokovic will have to avoid mental lapses, serve great, and capitalise on his good return game to get Federer into rallies.
Otherwise, it’s a record eighth for the Swiss.
