Marin Cilic saw his qualification bid for the ATP World Tour Finals put on hold after the US Open champion fell to his fellow Croat Ivo Karlovic 7-5, 2-6, 7-6(2) in the first round of the Shanghai Masters yesterday.
Cilic entered this week ranked No6 in the ATP Race to London (of which the top-eight are meant to qualify) after he was overtaken by Kei Nishikori, who has won back-to-back titles in Kuala Lumpur and Tokyo.
Five spots are still up for grabs at the men’s tennis season finale starting November 9, with Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer being the only three players to have qualified so far.
With just seven tournaments remaining in the final four weeks of the season, Cilic could have strengthened his position but his campaign was derailed by his early loss to Karlovic.
He could be leapfrogged by any one of five players right behind him – Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic, Andy Murray, David Ferrer and Grigor Dimitrov – should they have a decent week in Shanghai.
Cilic still remains in a strong position to make it to London though. While it’s commonly perceived that the top-eight in the Race directly qualify to London, the qualification rules are in fact slightly different.
According to 2014 ATP Rulebook, the following dictates who will feature at the O2 Arena this November:
“a) The top seven players in the Emirates ATP Rankings as of the Monday after the last ATP World Tour tournament of the calendar year; followed by…
b) Up to two (2) Grand Slam winners of that year, in order of their positions, positioned between eight and 20 in the Emirates ATP Rankings as of that Monday; followed by…
c) Players positioned eight and below in the Emirates ATP Rankings as of that Monday.”
We’ll have to excuse the ATP for the confusing statements above but here’s a deciphered version.
The rules mean that should Wawrinka, the Australian Open champion this year, qualify by virtue of his ranking, then Cilic is guaranteed a spot irrespective of his position in the Race since he is a Grand Slam champion and is ranked inside the top 20.
If both Wawrinka and Cilic don’t finish in the top seven, then the Swiss will take the eighth spot in London since he is ranked higher than the Croat in the world.
Wawrinka is strongly holding onto the fourth spot at the moment with a total of 4,795 points but the Swiss hasn’t won a tour-level match since his US Open quarter-final exit last month and he might have to fight off Berdych in the quarter-finals in Shanghai.
Murray (currently ninth) could face Ferrer in the third round and Djokovic in the last eight, Nishikori has Dimitrov and Federer in his quarter, while Raonic has Ernests Gulbis, John Isner and Nadal in his section of the draw.
With just 1,390 points separating positions four through 11 in the Race to London, the qualification battle seems fiercer than it has ever been.
Organisers are worried that crowd favourite Murray might not feature in the eight-player field in London but they are overlooking one important fact: whether the Scot makes it or not, fans will be treated to a perfect blend of household veterans and fiery up-and-comers – something we’ve certainly lacked at the ATP Finals in recent years.
