Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer scheduled US Open semi-final meeting is not foregone conclusion despite vintage seasons

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  • Federer has won each of their three meetings in 2017.

    It’s the anomaly of all anomalies.

    Quite how the Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer rivalry, arguably the most significant in the history of tennis, has never come to blows in the Big Apple is extraordinary. Particularly, as they have seven titles between them at the event.

    And while we should be grateful both veterans are scheduled to meet in the semi-finals of this year’s US Open, Friday’s draw was tinged with disappointment that the pair were pitted together in the top half of proceedings.

    There was a chance that the world No.1 Spaniard and Swiss No.3 seed could be set for a final on Arthur Ashe, but unfortunately there will be no fairytale there.

    Indeed, what a finale it could have been, to have two icons of the game – the winners of each of the three Grand Slam titles so far in 2017 – battle it out for the fourth under lights in Manhattan.

    A chance for Nadal to avenge his Australian Open loss and truly cement top spot in the rankings, an opportunity for Federer to win No.20, return to the summit himself and win three slams in a season for the first time since his vintage ’04, ’06, ’07 years.

    Wherever and whenever Nadal and Federer face-off now, the match-ups are weighted with history and context. A potential 38th overall meeting and 13th in majors is very much a reality in New York.

    For so long it had been an unbalanced, uncomfortably favourable head-to-head for Nadal, but Federer has won their last four meetings – including the Australian Open final in January – to make the Spaniard’s 23-14 winning record look less domineering on paper at least.

    Given how both stars have rolled back the years in 2017 in what has mimicked a Back to the Future plotline, we should all then be getting the popcorn in preparation for their semi-final duel.

    But then again, given they’ve never met in the city that never sleeps, maybe we shouldn’t assume.

    There’s been a number of near misses, where they were nailed on to meet previously.

    Take 2008, for instance. Federer stormed to a record-equalling fifth straight title – defeating Andy Murray in the Brit’s first Grand Slam final. The Scot dumped Nadal out in the semi-finals, denying a Fed-Nadal showdown. The pair were one and two seeds at the time.

    In 2009, too, it was a similar story. The two modern-day greats were due to meet in the final but Nadal was blown off the court as Juan Martin Del Potro played lights out tennis to win their semi-final 6-2 6-2 6-2. Whereas Federer, who was ranked on top spot at the time, defeated Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals only to lose to the Argentine in a final epic.

    In 2010 and 2011, Djokovic downed Federer in five sets in the semi-finals in both tournaments – with the Serbian also saving two match points on both occasions. If Federer had won those matches, he would have gone on to face Nadal in the final each time. Two years later, in 2013, they were due to meet in the last eight but Federer lost to Tommy Robredo as Nadal went onto sweep the title for a second time.

    While we can look back at what might have been and look ahead to what could be, the bottom line is the tennis fraternity, and indeed the sporting world, should be forever grateful for how these two icons are still writing history at the very top of the sport.

    This time last year, Federer was absent from the event due to injury while Nadal looked a shadow of the force of old. How the tables have turned.

    This year, Nadal’s draw is full of difficult permutations and the Majorcan has failed to go beyond the fourth round at Flushing Meadows since his win four years ago.

    You’d expect him to cruise through his opening few matches with tougher tests possibly coming against Richard Gasquet in the third round, Tomas Berdych in the fourth and in-form Grigor Dimitrov in the quarter-finals. That won’t come as much of a concern for Nadal, however, who boasts more than a comprehensive head-to-head record against all of those opponents.

    While Nadal’s quarter-final exit to Nick Kyrgios in Cincinnati was perhaps a blessing in disguise, given he could afford himself more recovery time ahead of New York – he could meet the Australian in the semi-finals should Federer not stop the 22-year-old along the way in the fourth round.

    Federer has long been the master of his own schedule and skipping the hard court event in Ohio was the best option to cure a lingering back issue and get the proper rest his 36-year-old body needs.

    While we all know about the Swiss’ 2017 achievements, it would be extra icing on top of an already weighty-looking cake if he could seal a 20th slam – his first since 2008 in New York.

    While the 19-time slam winner could face Kyrgios as mentioned in the last 16, a quarter-final match-up against old foe Del Potro or Dominic Thiem is equally tough.

    Ahead of the event, though, the Fed looks as relaxed as ever having made history at Wimbledon in July – headlining what has been a remarkable campaign given his six-month injury lay-off in 2016.

    For both Nadal and Federer – on paper – it looks certain they’ll meet. But this tournament has had other ideas in the past.

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